My 2019 Election Excel Sheet: How Nigerians Can Determine the Next President with an Excel Sheet…

As a Management Consultant, let me help Nigerians understand how they can change the fortunes of this Nation with slight adjustments on My 2019 Election Excel sheet. Take this as my personal social responsibility.

Before I post my assumptions and spreadsheet images, let me categorically state the following DISCLAIMERS.

1. The assumptions/analysis do not express the opinions of my employer, associates, family, faith organisation or colleagues. These are purely personal scenarios.
2. I am an Amateur Political Analyst, I just used my profession to create scenarios.
3. I am NOT endorsing any candidate in this analysis. My vote is personal and between myself and my ballot box. This is strictly designed to help Nigerians understand the permutations of Election.
4. The Voter Turn-out ratio used was discretionary (my assumptions). While it is good to use the 2015 turn-out ratio as benchmark, how do we estimate the passion — hunger, anger and opinions of Nigerians for or against the leading candidates.
5. With ALL due respect to the other candidates outside the two main parties (APC & PDP), let me speak to them in their own philosophical language. I believe in the Law of Sowing, TIME and Harvest. Here is my philosophy, the Impossible is only made possible by God (The Supernatural Factor). If humans want to achieve “the Impossible” — they need TIME to make it happen and should be prepared to pay a PARTICULAR price TAG. Two Years preparation is not enough to change an established system except the people are truly ready, and clearly — Nigerians are not ready and don’t seem ashamed of that. To my friends supporting them, please do not take this personal. If the impossible will happen, then it will be God. To sum up my points, most of their supporters still don’t have PVCs and couldn’t take a day off work to try — they can’t stand the long PVC collection queues.
6. Three scenarios and scenario drivers were used for simplicity, more scenarios are possible. The scenario drivers were the battle ground regions which included: North East (which ideally should not be, because Atiku is from the region but let’s work with that); South West and North Central. The three scenarios are: (1) Both candidate have equal votes in the battle ground regions. (2) Buhari wins the battle ground region (3) Atiku wins the battle ground region. A more detailed permutation would be to do this on a state by state basis and add other potential drivers — power and party of the Governor, Number of Ministers from the region etc.
7. I used a 10% difference as the wining margin to keep it simple and conservative and in the light of the public analysis that it will be a tight race.
8. Lastly, see images containing the scenarios below. Clearly, Your Vote WILL actually count! Send me a DM for the free Actual Excel Sheet.